笔记侠:上半场是互联网的主场,下半场是传统业的回归

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过去的二十年,互联网发展的第一个阶段,所有企业的价值源泉是流量。

今天所有互联网领先的企业,从淘宝、微信、到谷歌,都是基于流量产生的巨大价值。

但是,我们已经能感受到简单的流量效应已经无法再带动社会继续产生巨大的价值创新。

流量为王之后,我们需要新的玩法。

这个游戏规则,曾鸣将其定义为“协同效应”,这将是未来任何企业竞争的价值源泉。

协同效应的本质是相对于工业时代比较传统的、封闭的、线性的供应链管理体制,整个社会用一种多角色、大规模、实时的社会化协同方式,基于网络来创造新的价值

这种价值创造,就是协同效应。

微软是承前启后的代表。

PC互联网时代,微软凭借着windows和IE浏览器,击退了Mac和Netscape,成为霸主

但微软显然没有跟上移动互联网的步子,被苹果甩了一大截,智能时代,微软拿起云服务突围,市值重回第一。

据相关数据显示,2018年财年微软收入超过1000亿美元。

目前微软的主要有三大块收入组成:Productivity and Business Processes(生产和业务流程)、Intelligent Cloud(智能云团)、Personal Computing(个人计算机),其中Intelligent Cloud的核心业务Azure企业级云服务的收入增速在80%以上。

根据摩根斯坦利预测,微软商业云服务的毛利率预计从2014年的15%增长到2021年的68%。

微软将重攀顶峰。

一、互联网上半场,我们靠流量

互联网的上半场总体分为两大部分,PC互联网时代和移动互联网时代。

这两个阶段全球出现了数以千万计的企业、企业家,站在时代的风口浪尖,充满了机会,只要心里有梦,试着翻身一跃,总有机会成为锦鲤。

当然,也有很多小鱼被大浪的势头唬住,进退不得或者重回穴中。

在PC互联网时代,中国诞生了诸如阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度、360、搜狐、网易等互联网公司。

在移动互联网时代,一些原有的企业、企业家跟着时代不断调整频道,活了下来或者活的更好。

此外,又出现了如小米、今日头条、美团、滴滴等新将

这些企业都有一个共同的特点,就是逐流量而居。

1. 互联网与BAT

1994年,互联网正式进入中国。

互联网给人们带来了便捷的、点对点的信息传递方式。

那时,人们主要的聊天软件是微软的MSN、ICQ我找你)等。

ICQ是第一个诞生的聊天工具,但ICQ这款软件只有英文,而且十分难上手,所以在中国市场的普及范围较小、人群较固定。

1997年,程序员马化腾接触到了ICQ,萌生出了要制作一款中国版的ICQ的想法,让软件的辐射范围更广,方便大众使用。

1999年2月,一款名字为OICQ的聊天软件伴随着一只小企鹅出现在大家面前,腾讯公司创造的OICQ聊天软件在很短的时间内打败了国内的大多数聊天软件,成为中国市场上最受欢迎的聊天工具。

1999年3月10日,阿里巴巴网站在马云的家中诞生。

那时,外贸开始重新兴起,马云建立的电子商务网站连接了中国供应商和中外的一些企业客户,在整个互联网界开创了一种崭新的模式,被国际媒体称为继雅虎、亚马逊、易贝之后的第四种互联网模式。

2000年,李彦宏、徐勇从美国硅谷回国,创建了百度,一路过关斩将,击退谷歌中国,坐稳了中国搜索引擎第一的宝座。

至此,阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度奠定了互联网时代的三大巨头。

互联网时代的鼎盛期也伴随着几家大公司的诞生而悄然来临。

2. 移动互联网与小米

苹果开创了智能化手机的开端,而小米则迎接了移动互联网时代的到来。

2007年,乔布斯在旧金山莫斯康尼会议中心举行第一代iPone手机发布会,向世界宣布,苹果要重新发明手机。

在国内的雷军受到启发,他产生了一个疯狂的想法,要用互联网方式做手机,造福全球的每一个人,这是一个当时几乎没有人相信的疯狂想法

2011年8月16日,雷军在小米第一代手机发布会上宣布,经过400多天的日日夜夜,小米手机终于见人了。

雷军后来回忆当时现场的状况,自己提前10分钟到场,但已经挤不进去。

当雷军后方的大屏幕显示第一款手机售价1999元的那一刻,全场起立鼓掌长达30秒。

今年7月9日,小米在港交所上市,成为“同股不同权”的第一股。

3. 移动互联网与O2O

伴随着移动互联网的鼎盛期,2013年爆发了O2O潮,诞生了很多公司,“烧钱”这个词用来形容当时的情景再合适不过了。

打车、订餐、电商、支付....几乎所有的细分领域都是动辄几亿、十几亿美元的融资金额。

当时的O2O市场更像一片血海,每个领域都充满着火枪味的竞争。

巨大的风口下,是鱼龙混杂的局面,当O2O的泡沫过去,留下的是真正高频入口级的企业。

4. 辉煌时代

在小米之后,腾讯的微信、今日头条、美团、滴滴、抖音、快手、拼多多等公司相继涌现。

2018年9月20日,在创办美团的第8个年头,王兴在香港迎来了美团的上市,估值达到528亿美元

今年12月,快手创始人程一笑在演讲中表示,快手日活跃用户目前已突破1.5亿,用户使用时长超过60分钟。

而2016年9月上线的抖音,目前的日活用户已达2亿。

流量、人口红利让这些企业获得了大量的利润,增长几乎到达顶峰。

但随着市场渐趋饱和,人口拓张乏力,新的拐点正在迎接它们。

5. 辉煌时代的背后

2016年,互联网到移动互联网的转型基本结束,移动互联网迎来拐点智能手机和移动互联网用户在不断下降。

市场调研机构 Counterpoint Research 的报告显示,2018 年第三季度全球智能手机出货量同比每年下降 3%

此外,2017年中国移动互联网月度活跃设备总数从2017年1月到12月仅增长了0.61亿,同比增长率也呈逐月递减趋势

流量总体增速放缓,互联网流量红利日渐殆尽。

经过两年时间的野蛮生长,短视频行业已经从蓝海变成了红海,增量市场逐渐到达瓶颈期。

艾瑞mUserTracker数据显示:

进入2018年以来,中国短视频行业月独立设备数的环比增长率逐渐放缓,短视频行业用户红利期已经开始消退,2018年9月短视频月独立设备数甚至出现小幅下降。

微信内容阅读量、用户增长量放缓,内容创业者开始了从线上到线下的迁徙。

线下的共享单车、打车市场、无人货架市场也扩张乏力。

靠解决用户最后一公里火遍大江南北的共享单车,引发了众多创业者的追捧,线上的红利少了,到线下似乎成了顺理成章的事。

然而,泡沫灭了,结局就是众多共享单车倒了、曾四次迁址新家地址、用猎头招聘前台、频繁换帅、大范围扩展市场的ofo挣扎着求生。

曾经中国“自行车第一镇”,天津市区以西40多公里、隶属武清区的小镇王庆坨里的自行车加工厂人去厂空。

滴滴的打车市场亦然没有墙,上海市场差点面临美团的围攻,而拓展全球市场的计划也明显困难重重。

2017年,接近50个玩家入局,投资金额高达30亿,市场估值近千亿的无人货架,由于货损率、产品脱销、高昂的运营成本,太多人倒下了、挣扎着。

扩张、市场、领地作为灯塔的光不那么明亮了。单纯靠红利、风口活下去的年代正渐渐远去。

种种情景都显示了不乐观的状态。互联网上半场似乎已近结局。

接下来的互联网下半场,不会像之前那样顺利了,有一场硬仗正等着我们。

但是,来者无惧。

就像任正非所说的,要将外部环境的压力变成倒逼我们业务创新与管理改进的动力

外部环境虽然逐步变坏,但未来世界数字化、智能化和云化的空间很大

我们只要在技术上创新求真,踏踏实实的干出尖端成果,组织有活力,员工有干劲,公司还有生存与发展的基础与能力的。

6. 接下来的增长是什么?

消费升级带来的产业升级。

著名经济学家王德培在《中国经济2019》中提到,三驾马车”来看,消费依然是拉动中国经济增长的“首驾马车”。

王德培说,消费升级的方向就是产业升级的重要导向,只有围绕消费市场的升级趋势,才能在产业上优化结构,提升产业竞争力和附加值,促使产业升级。

二、互联网的下半场,我们要内生增长

什么是风口?

京东大学能力发展与生态合作中心总监岳建军说

仅2018年这一年,我们就听闻了人工智能、大数据、区块链、物联网这一系列概念,这些名词被专家学者们提过很多次,他们正在发生,但很多人只知道概念。

这个时代正在发生的东西跟我们的关系是什么?这些东西如何才能更好地为我们服务?

我们追溯到互联网下半场的核心—产业互联网

马化腾今年提到了产业互联网,并认为,互联网的下半场是产业互联网。

王兴在内部讲话中,将下半场分为三个层面:

一是美团点评这家公司要进入下半场。

二是互联网和移动互联网这个行业要进入下半场。

三是中国的产业、中国的经济要进入下半场。

四是全球的经济和政治要进入下半场。

下半场的关键是什么?

高质量生长。

在之前的30年,我们一直追求高速度增长,让GDP变大,成为全世界最大的国家。

30年之后,高速度“增长”无法持续,我们就必须转。

转型最重要的在于持续下去,“活下去”是一个根本的选择。

创业黑马董事长牛文文在近期的发言中谈到,整个投资界已经回到了两个基本的价值观:

第一,你有没有底层创新、原始创新。我们不需要你再做流量创新。

第二,你虽然有很多用户,但很亏损,而我们希望看到你有一个规模盈利的现实和未来。

由此,有没有底层创新、能不能规模盈利成为了根本。

从企业发展三段论来看,我们从依靠市场驱动,走向了依靠领导力驱动和创新驱动。

在这样的情况下,我们要重谈存量。

为什么要重谈存量,我们先从存量的概念入手。

什么是存量?

根据百度百科介绍,存量市场说的是市场现存已被看到确定的,竞争讲的是市场份额,常见是价值链竞争也就是全面竞争每一个环节海越来越红。

它不同于增量市场,增量市场是市场边界在扩散,整体量在提升,甚至可以蚕食别的类似品类的市场,整体规模在增加的市场。

陈春花在《激活个体》里谈到,存量要做激活,就是将传统的业务激活,但不能简单砍掉它

使原来保留的东西不能成为包袱,甚至要释放空间让你去做新东西,这才叫做存量激活

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